1 What do we think about floods? Social perception on flood risk in Águeda municipality, Portugal
    Valente, S.1; Coelho, C.2; Figueiredo, E.3; Pinho, L.4 ABSTRACT Floodplains were traditionally considered as special locations to urban development (Montz, 2000), leading to the increase of human occupation in those areas as well as to a larger human exposure and vulnerability to flood risk. Risk concept combines the likelihood occurrence of a disaster and the vulnerability of the natural and socioeconomic systems. However this concept is also “socially constructed” (Dake, 1992:26) and its definition depends also on the social perception, which is in addition formed by several factors. As Flynn and Slovic (2000: 109) state, “human beings invented the concept of risk to help them understand and cope with danger and the uncertainties of life”. The focus of this study is the assessment of public perception about flood hazard in Águeda municipality, in the Central Region of Portugal. The frequent occurrence of flooding, as well as the population’s vulnerability and exposure to this risk, were decisive in the choice of this object of study. The communities’ perception about floods causes and impacts, as well as about the strategies they use to prevent, mitigate and cope with floods was addressed using a survey applied to the local inhabitants. The empirical evidence showed that there is a clear tendency towards acceptance and coping with flood risk. This demonstrates that people that are used to live with flood risk accept the impossibility of elimination of the total risk, and recognizing sometimes the advantages of living in floodplains (Parker, 2000). Key-words: Flood hazard, Floodplain occupation, Risk perception 1. Introduction The increase of natural hazards world-wide, particularly the occurrence of floods (Krichsteiger, 1999; Silva, 2003; European Environmental Agency, 2003), has been visible in the last decades. Floods can be considered as the risk that progressively affects more people, even disturbing places that were traditionally affected by droughts (Blaikie et al., 1994). If in one hand floods are important to the regeneration of some plants and animals, in the other hand most of the times floods cause material damages and even human losses (Blaikie et al., 1994). Changes observed in flooding have been broadly debated, particularly the issues related to its frequency and intensity. Those changes are particularly associated with urban development,
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    PhD. Student; CESAM – Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies; Environment and Planning Department, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal; E-mail: sandra.valente@ua.pt; Phone.: +351234370349 / Fax.: +351234370309 2 Full Professor; CESAM – Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies; Environment and Planning Department, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal; E-mail: coelho@ua.pt; Phone: +351234370349 / Fax: +351234370309 3 Assistant Professor; CEGOPP – Centre for Governance and Public Policies Studies; Unit of Social, Legal and Political Sciences, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal; E-mail: elisa@ua.pt; Phone: +351234372492 / Fax: +351234372500 4 PhD. Student; CESAM – Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies; Environment and Planning Department, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal; E-mail: lpinho@ua.pt; Phone: +351234370349 / Fax: +351234370309
    
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    changes on land use, water courses alterations, forest fires increase and, more recently, with climate change. As pointed out by several authors (e.g. Blaikie et al., 1994; Montz, 2000) many hazards represent a combination of natural risk aggravated by human intervention. In fact, the occupation of places usually affected by natural hazards, as floodplains, volcano hillsides, areas of seismic risk, among others, generally corresponds to the frequent solution adopted by communities with adverse socio-economic conditions (Blaikie et al., 1994). In the case of floodplains occupation, it is widely recognized that floods would have less impacts if there was no human presence in those areas (White, 1974). Actually, floodplains were considered, during many years, as privileged spaces for urban development, but the raise of population in those zones largely contributed to increase the number of people prone to flood risk (Montz, 2000). As aforementioned, risk concept combines the probability of occurrence of a hazard with the vulnerability of the natural and socioeconomic systems. There is still some debate around the role played by the increase in the vulnerability or by the augmentation in the frequency and intensity of events in the amplification of natural disasters all over the world (Krichsteiger, 1999). Following the General Hazards Coping Theory developed by Burton, Kates and White (1978), it can be considered that there is a kind of irrationality in the behaviour of floodplain inhabitants since they continue to occupy those areas. This can be explained by the cost-benefit perception of the inhabitants, which is in some cases positive, considering the socio-economic advantages on living on those areas (Alexander, 1993). Thus, social perception assessment can be considered an important area of research in order to produce empirical evidence and knowledge about social behaviours and attitudes to be taken into account in risk management. Social perception of risk relies on several factors, like the individual characteristics, such as gender, age, socio-economic condition, cultural and religious values, among others (Cinner and Polac, 2004), but it also depends on the familiarity with the risk source, on the knowledge about the hazard impacts and on trust on the entities and measures designed to risk management (Slovic, 1987; Flynn and Slovic, 2000). Additionally, it also includes an intuitive evaluation, integrating “qualitative reflections like fear, the catastrophic potential, the controllable nature of events, equity, uncertainty (…)” (Flynn and Slovic, 2000:110). In hazard situations each social environment develops its own reactions and behaviours that derive from its social, cultural, economic and political characteristics. Reinforcing this idea, Duclos (1994) argues that the attitudes and social representations concerning risk have to be socially and political contextualized. So, depending on the social context, on the way in which the process of management is conducted and on the nature of the risk itself, risk awareness may vary from recognition and consequent intolerance and indignation to acceptance and understanding of danger without action or even to total ignorance (Almeida, 2003). Copping with risk can even be something inherent to the community, due to the tradition in occupying floodplains and also due to the benefits perceived on this occupation (Alexander, 1993). In this sense the definition and implementation of measures to reduce flood risk requires the cooperation of the floodplain inhabitants. In fact, flood management can be improved by the integration of the vulnerable populations’ values, since this can help to quantify the acceptable risk and to define measures, entities and resources to mitigate and prevent those risks (MorrisOswald and Sinclair, 2005). In Portugal, the strategies and measures applied to prevent and mitigate flood impacts has been mainly characterised by structural interventions, minimizing the importance of controlling urban development in risk areas (Parker, 2000; Silva, 2003; Figueiredo et al., 2004) as well as the population’s information, awareness and involvement. As stated by Plate (2002: 2) “the process of flood risk management has been widely discussed without considering the actors involved”.
    
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    According to Plate (2002) and Silva (2003), participation of the population and integration of its risk perception, when dealing with cases of flooding, are essential aspects of risk mitigation and management measures. In some cases the expansion of the population into risk areas together with the consequent social, economic and political dynamics have increased the level of exposure and vulnerability to risk, and likewise influenced the frequency and magnitude of flooding occurrences (e.g. White, 1945; Montz, 2000; Coelho et al. 2004; Silva, 2003). Effectively, only recently has social perception of risk begun to be addressed in flood risk management, thanks to the recognition that it can play an extremely important role in the way social actors act and integrate measures of risk mitigation, control and management into their systems of values and practices. 2. Methodology 2.1 Aims The main aims are to discuss how populations located in areas prone to flood risk perceive such hazard and to assess the inhabitants’ ways of management and adaptation to flood risk. Using a case study, we will discuss: i) floods causes and consequences; ii) the measures used to prevent, mitigate and cope with floods; and iii) the differences in the social perceptions about these issues. 2.2 Study area The frequent occurrence of floods and the vulnerability and exposure of local populations to this hazard were decisive factors in the choice of this municipality as a case study. The municipality of Águeda, located in the central region of Portugal, has 20 civil parishes and is part of the hydrographic basin of the River Vouga (see Fig.1). The southwest part of the municipality is more urbanized and is also more affected by floods. Recently, it can be mentioned the floods that occurred in 25 of December of 1995 and in 26 of January of 2001, both of huge amplitude and with a lot of impressive damages. População total Figure 1. Águeda municipality location. Adapted from Atlas do Ambiente (1999) The flood problem in Águeda is not only frequent and of great magnitude, but is also a longstanding issue. It that in the is evident municipality of Águeda the frequency and intensity of floods has been increasing in recent years. In geomorphologic terms, the area combines all the natural conditions for flood occurrence, which have, however, been aggravated by human occupation of the floodplains over the years. In fact, the main causes that had been attributed to floods in Águeda are related with high intense rainfall events, which are amplified by the mountainous nature of the basin of the Águeda, Alfusqueiro and Cértima rivers. The low-lying area of Águeda in particular, is frequently exposed to flooding, aggravated by human intervention, whether by drainage obstruction or the improper occupation of floodplains. In this area of the town, flooding happens almost every winter, thus causing considerable damages, especially to shops, warehouses and residences, as well as destroying arable land and livestock and placing constraints on infrastructures, among others (e.g. Coelho et al., 2004). The flood episodes in Águeda and its serious damages raised the attention of local and national media. Concerning the 2001 flood, about 7 million euros of damages were recorded, whereas 4 million euros was in the local commerce. Despite being an extensive problem throughout the municipality, flooding does not affect equally all areas of Águeda. A map5 was drawn up where the flood stricken parishes were highlighted (Coelho et al, 2004; Figueiredo et al., 2004).
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    The map represents an exercise in marking flood risk areas, based on a combination of spatial data and information from empirical analysis.
    
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    The flooding areas are mainly located in the western part of the municipality. Concerning the empirical evidence, results show that the parishes with the most number of respondents affected by floods are also located in the western area of the municipality. In short, it is in the parishes situated within this area that flooding registered more damage. The remaining parishes in higher places are scarcely affected by such extreme events. 2.3 Data collection and analysis Data were obtained using a questionnaire6, which aimed to address social perception about floods occurrence in Águeda. Specifically, the questionnaire deals with the local populations’ perceptions about the causes and consequences of flooding and about the measures to minimize its effects as well as analysis and assessment of the magnitude of the associated risk. 823 questionnaires were applied, representing 2% of the total resident population in the municipality aged over 15 (41252 inhabitants). Sampling by quotas was used, based on criteria associated with population size in the civil parishes, age group, sex, level of schooling and economic standard of living. The data was analysed using bivariate and multivariate approaches, particularly non-parametric tests, such as Chi-square and Cramer’s V. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1 Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents The socio-economic characteristics of the respondents reflect the main features of the inhabitants of Águeda municipality. In what concerns the main socio-economic characteristics of the respondents, it can be said that they are equally divided between male and female categories. As it can be seen on table 1, they are also evenly distributed by age groups. Table 1. Respondents’ distribution by age Concerning the level of schooling, the majority of the respondents (41%) concluded the elementary school, 6% are illiterate and 5% have an university degree. 50% of the inquired inhabitants have an economic activity (see Fig.2). The main professional categories are: manual workers (26%); independent workers on industry, construction, commerce, transports and services (15%), farmers (12%); dependent workers on industry, construction, commerce, transports and services (11%); among others. The remaining respondents are retired (26%), students (10%) and unemployed (4%), among others. Figure 2. Respondents’ distribution by work condition 3.2 Flood’s causes and consequences In general terms, the empirical evidence shows that there is a clear tendency towards acceptance and coping with flood risk by the population of Águeda municipality. This seems to be connected to the local population’s recognition that although is impossible to eliminate risk, there are some advantages in occupying floodplains. Floods are not a recent phenomena, nor infrequent, in the municipality of Águeda. Therefore 77% of those surveyed remember some particular floods. It comes as no surprise that most of these individuals mention the floods of recent hydrological years. In Águeda, one of the major flood event occurred on January of 2001, although the most mentioned flood was the one from 2002, the last one before the survey. White (1972) opus cit in Alexander (1993) stated that the date of a flood event influence the social risk perception.
    
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    The survey was implemented in Summer of
    
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    Of the respondents who have already been affected by floods, 54% say that they have suffered some damage, 90% of whom mention exclusively material damage, particularly damage to furniture, electrical appliances (either household or in commercial and industrial establishments), arable land, buildings or loss of livestock. As risk vulnerability increases, so does the percentage of respondents who mention the destruction and damage to buildings and the goods inside them. In areas of medium vulnerability, damage to agriculture and loss of livestock were the most frequently mentioned. As main consequences of flooding in Águeda, those surveyed report loss of goods, equipment and merchandise (33%), degradation of property (19%), temporary closure of shops and services (18%), damage to agriculture (14%) and the destruction and degradation of public infra-structures (5%). So, the privileged location of shops in downtown Águeda represents a compensatory factor when balancing the costs and benefits of flood impact, and the main reason why people are willing to live with risk. Although floods are very frequent in the municipality of Águeda and in some ways predictable, only 13% of the respondents state that they have insurance against this risk. Most of the respondents in the municipality of Águeda (56%) notwithstanding their objective characteristics and exposure of their area of residence to risk, tend to associate occurrence and aggravation of floods with more global climate change phenomena. Increased precipitation caused by global climate change, global warming and the destruction of the ozone layer (mainly due to pollution, deforestation and forest fires) are the most frequently stated reasons for the link established between climate change and flood risk aggravation. The respondents were asked to mention the main causes of floods in Águeda, and the results showed a division between natural factors, such as extreme events of precipitation, identified by 22%, and human interventions, such as the failure to clean streams and adjacent land (28%), the inability of rivers to drain (16%), construction work on floodplains (10%) and changes in land use (5%) (see Fig.3). A relationship between the causes attributed to floods and the respondents’ residence was observed. Thus, the main causes attributed by the ones that live in parishes with greater vulnerability are the failure to clean the streams and adjacent land, followed by the precipitation and also the construction work on floodplains, while in the less vulnerable zones the major cause identified is the rainfall. The changes in land use and the forest fires are also mentioned mainly by the respondents that live in the parishes with lower vulnerability to flooding. So, it is essentially the context in which risk is experienced that determines how it is perceived (Renn, 2004). Figure 3. Flood’s causes The empirical data also demonstrated some intolerance from the respondents that live in areas less vulnerable to floods, in relation to the ones that live in the flooding area. Plate (2002) discusses this through the public knowledge about the financial means that are used in floods’ prevention and mitigation and that they could be used in other social needs. In fact, the cooperation in flood management depends on the system of society’s values and on the solidarity between the inhabitants. 3.3 Measures and entities to prevent and mitigate floods 59% of the respondents are aware of some of the institutional measures developed to mitigate and manage flood risk in the municipality of Águeda; 30% don’t know of any existing measures and 9% state that measures are non-existent. The main measures identified were: the cleaning of streams and adjacent land (52%); the construction of a flood wall next to the river in downtown Águeda (13%) and the desilting and widening of the river and water lines (10%). In terms of success of those measures 32% mention their success and effectiveness whereas 18% consider their ineffectiveness or their partial success.
    
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    It were also mentioned by 79% of the respondents some future measures that are needed to mitigation of flooding, being the most related the removal of hindrance and cleanness of the water courses and also the regularization of the river (39% and 15%, respectively), and the prohibition and regulation of urbanization on the floodplain (9%). With less importance, it was also mentioned small correction measures, the natural recovery of the water courses edges, the cleaning of ditches and sewers and the information and awareness of the population about the risk and how to deal with it. 91% of the respondents identify entities responsible for the prevention and fighting of floods in Águeda (see Fig.4). Entities operating locally are those given greater responsibility (50%). Firefighters and civil protection services are considered to be the entities with greatest responsibility in this area by 24% of the individuals, whereas 18% consider that responsibility should rest with central government. Note that the population is only held responsible by 6% of those surveyed. Regarding how the actions of these entities are perceived, the opinion is divided among those surveyed. Hence, 39% consider that the entities cited act in a positive way and 35% state that their action is insufficient or negative. Figure 4. Entities responsible for fighting/preventing flood risk in the municipality of Águeda 4. Conclusion Part of the City of Águeda is located on a flooding area, being many times inundated with huge damages for the inhabitants. But as stated in the Águeda Municipal Plan of Emergency “… the marginal urban zone of the City of Águeda and the populations that live or work close to the rivers Águeda and Vouga are used to coexist with floods for many years.” (Serviço de Protecção Civil Municipal, 2000). In this context, it is extremely important to know the vulnerability of the natural and socioeconomic systems and incorporate this in the risk management strategies, especially in areas where human occupation contributed to flooding. Taking into account Morris-Oswald and Sinclair (2005) arguments, it is fundamental to understand the inhabitants’ social values and incorporate this in the definition of the floodplain management strategies. The same authors defend that, generally, populations that have been recently affected by floods, will arrive to a common understanding about the nature of the problem, based on the assessment and share of lived experiences (Morris-Oswald and Sinclair, 2005). The same happens in the study area, since people know the causes and inherent consequences of floods, and also recognized that floods in Águeda are a combination of natural hazard and human intervention. In fact, more than a quarter of the respondents said they have been affected by floods at least once, the most visible consequences being material damage in the form of damaged buildings and goods, roads and other infra-structures, flooding, with consequent losses in agricultural activity and diverse damage to commercial and industrial establishments. The causes most frequently cited for the occurrence of floods were associated, much more, with aspects concerning measures (not) taken by the authorities responsible and, much less, with issues concerning the population’s practices, particularly the improper occupation of floodplains. In Águeda, the overall strategy concerning flood risk management had been concentrated on structural measures aiming to mitigate the impacts of floods, neglecting the implementation of preventive and non-structural measures. The occupation of the flooding areas in Águeda is seen as inevitable, and the measures of floods prevention rely on the control of the volume of the water courses, on the creation of efficient awareness systems and on the fast and efficient intervention of the entities of civil protection during the crisis. However this type of measures
    
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    when adopted separately can induce an idea of false security, leading to the increase of floodplain occupation (Blaikie et al., 1994). On the other hand, the social perceptions about flood risk also demonstrated a predisposition on the part of the local inhabitants to cope with this risk. This attitude is essentially motivated «… by familiarity with the risk source; by the perception that occupation of the most exposed and vulnerable areas is worth the losses both potential and actual caused by occurrences of flooding; by being aware and informed of the management mechanisms and measures taken at an institutional level; by the individual and institutional sense of powerlessness in the face of the inevitability of risk; and by the perception of flood effects being reversible.» (Figueiredo et al., 2004) Land use planning and the elaboration of a Map of Flood Risk, in municipalities affect by floods, which is mandatory (Decree n.º 364/98 of 21 of November), and its integration in the instruments of spatial planning represent a step forward through the integration of risk management and territorial planning. Nevertheless, the assessment of social perceptions and the participation and active involvement of the population still represent issues minimized in flood risk management. Acknowledgement This survey was developed under the scope of CLIMED project (INCO-MED ICA3-CT-200030005) - Effects of climate change and climate variability on water availability and water management practices in Western Mediterranean - financed by the European Commission. The authors acknowledge the availability and interest demonstrated by all the respondents. References: Alexander, D., 1993. Natural Disasters. UCL Press, London, U.K. Almeida, A. B., 2003. A gestão do risco em sistemas hídricos: Conceitos e metodologias aplicadas a vales com barragens. In: Ferreira, J., Franco, A., Silva, R., Netto, O., Vaz, A., Rodrigues, A., Cunha, L., Leitão, T. (Eds.), 6.º Simpósio de Hidráulica e Recursos Hídricos dos Países de Língua Oficial Portuguesa, 10-13 Novembro. Cabo Verde. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I., Wisner, B., 1994. At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability, and disasters. Routeledge, London, U.K. Cinner, J.E., Pollnac, R.B., 2004. Poverty, perceptions and planning: why socioeconomics matter in the management of Mexican reefs. Ocean & Coastal Management, 47:479-493. Coelho, C., Valente, S., Pinho, L., Carvalho, T., Ferreira, A., Figueiredo, E., 2004. A percepção social das alterações climáticas e do risco de cheia. Paper for the 7º Congresso da Água, Lisboa, Portugal, 8-12 March. Dake, K., 1992. Myths of nature: culture and the social construction of risk. Social Issues, 48(4):21–37. European Environmental Agency, 2003. Europe’s Environment. The Dobris Assessment. OPOCE, Copenhagen, Denmark. Figueiredo, E., Valente, S., Coelho, C., Pinho, L., 2004. Conviver com o Risco: A importância da incorporação da percepção social nos mecanismos de gestão do risco de cheia no concelho de
    
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    Águeda. Paper for the VIII Congresso Luso-Afro-Brasileiro de Ciências Sociais: A questão social no novo milénio, Coimbra, Portugal, 16-18 September. Flynn, J., Slovic, P., 2000. Avaliações dos peritos e do público acerca dos riscos tecnológicos. In: Gonçalves, M.E. (Org.), Cultura Científica e Participação Pública. Celta, Oeiras, Portugal. Pp. 109–120. Jorge, G., Valério, A., Franco, A.B., 2000. O controlo das cheias em Águeda. Paper for the 6º Congresso da Água, Porto, Portugal, 18-22 March. Krichsteiger, C., 1999. Trends in accidents, disasters and risk sources in Europe. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Processes Industries, 12:7-17. Montz, B.E., 2000. The generation of flood hazards and disasters by urban development of floodplains. In: Parker, D.J. (Ed.), Floods. Routledge, London, U.K. Pp. 116–127. Morris-Oswald, T., Sinclair, A.J., 2005. Values and floodplain management: Case studies from the Red River Basin, Canada. Environmental Hazards, 6:9-22. Parker, D.J., 2000. Introduction to floods and flood management. In: Parker, D.J. (Ed.), Floods. Routledge, London, U.K. Pp. 3 – 39. Plate, E.J., 2002. Flood risk and flood management. Journal of Hydrology, 267:2-11. Renn, O. 2004. Perception of risks, Toxicology Letters. 149:405 – 413. Serviço de Protecção Civil, 2000. Plano Municipal de Emergência de Águeda. Câmara Municipal de Águeda, Portugal. Silva, D.S., 2003. Risco de cheia: vias para a sua mitigação. Paper for Conference on Territórios de Risco: Análise, avaliação e vias de mitigação, Lisboa, Portugal, 15 December. Slovic, P., 1987. Perception of risk. Science, 236:280-285. White, G., 1974. Natural Hazards Research: Concepts, Methods, and Policy Implications. In: White, G. (Ed.), Natural Hazards – Local, National, Global. Oxford University Press, London, U.K. Pp. 3-15.
    
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    Figure 1. Águeda municipality location. Adapted from Atlas do Ambiente (1999)
    
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    Table 1. Respondents’ distribution by age Age 16-20 years old 21-29 years old 30-39 years old 40-49 years old 50-59 years old 60-69 years old > ou = 70 years old Total Respondents 75 98 111 130 147 123 139 823 % 9 12 13 16 18 15 17 100
    
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    29%
    
    Worker Unemployed
    
    51% 7% 9% 4%
    
    Student Housekeeper Retired
    
    Figure 2. Respondents’ distribution by work condition
    
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    Other Damdischarge Runnof fromCaramulo mountain Problems on the piping system Natural causes River siltation Good's w ill Forest fires Land use changes Absence of intreventions to regularize the river Construction w on ork floodplains Inabilityof rivers to drain Failure to clean streams and adjacent lands Bad management Tides Precipitation Climate change
    
    0
    
    5
    
    10
    
    15 %
    
    20
    
    25
    
    30
    
    Figure 3. Flood’s causes
    
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    Regional entities 1%
    
    Central Government 18%
    
    Other 2%
    
    Population 6%
    
    Fire-brigade 15% Agency of Civil Protection 9% Parishe responsible 6%
    
    Civil Government 1%
    
    Municipality responsible 42%
    
    Figure 4. Entities responsible for fighting/preventing flood risk in the Águeda municipality

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